A Decision Support Systems for Mitigation Measures of Drought Impacts in the Mediterranean Regions-Jordan Case Study

INCO IC18-CT97-0169

Dr. Adnan Al-Salihi
Water and Environment Research and Study Center
University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

 

Drought identification and characterization were carried out for two regions; Wadi Kaferin and Wadi Hisban in Jordan. A comparison between the identified droughts was carried out through local and regional analysis. Regression analysis has been used to fill the missing data. The analysis showed excellent correlation between the rainfall stations. Rainfall factors were developed for each station to take into account the rapid increase of rainfall with altitude and stations at the boundary of the area.

Comprehensive analyses of data for stationarity and randomness has been carried out on the series of each station. Three tests; Student’s t test, Kendall’s t test, and Turning point test, were applied. The calendar year, water year, and trimester time scales were considered. In all cases, a significance level of 0.05 was used and October as the beginning month of the water year was applied.

Drought characteristics were computed using annual; calendar and water year, and three months rainfall. For each series four different thresholds were used; mean, median, mean – standard deviation, and 35% quantile. The number of the drought periods, for the calendar series, are almost the same for all stations and about 50% of the period is less than the mean. Different periods and percentages are noticed with water year series with no consistency in results between the stations. Trimester series are with more drought periods and longer.